Investigating zero transmission of HIV in the MSM population: a UK modelling case study.

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals for HIV have been surpassed in the UK, with focus now moving to ending transmission by 2030. The concept of zero transmission is complex and many factors can influence transmission. We aimed to investigate how the target of zero transmission might be reached in the UK. METHODS: We developed a de novo Markov state transition open cohort model of HIV with a 50-year time horizon, which models six key screening, treatment and prevention parameters, including treatment-as-prevention (TasP) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We studied the anticipated HIV epidemic trajectory over time in men who have sex with men (MSM), with and without changing the six key parameters, defining zero transmission as a 60% reduction in incidence compared with 2010 incidence. RESULTS: Zero transmission in the MSM population was not achieved within the model's time horizon in our base case scenario, when the six key parameters were set to their 2019 values. Several future scenarios were explored, including a combination approach to preventing HIV transmission through increasing five key parameter values and considering three different TasP values; zero transmission was achieved by 2030 in the scenario where TasP was increased from its current level of 97-99%, avoiding 48,969 new HIV cases over the time horizon and reducing the lifetime risk of acquiring HIV for HIV-negative MSM not using PrEP from 13.65 to 7.53%. CONCLUSIONS: Zero transmission in the UK MSM population can be reached by the target year of 2030 with bold changes to HIV policy. A combination approach such as the UK Government's 'Towards Zero' Action plan, impacting multiple policies and including an increase in TasP, has the potential to achieve meaningful reductions in HIV transmission and meet this ambitious goal.

An Economic Model to Establish the Costs Associated With Routes to Presentation for Patients With Multiple Myeloma in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with myeloma often face significant diagnostic delay, with up to one-third of UK patients diagnosed after an emergency presentation (EP). Compared with other routes, patients presenting as an emergency have more advanced disease, increased complications, and poorer prognosis. METHODS: An economic model was developed using a decision-tree framework and lifetime time horizon to estimate costs related to different presentation routes (EP, general practitioner [GP] 2-week wait, GP urgent, GP routine, and consultant to consultant) for UK patients diagnosed as having myeloma. After diagnosis, patients received one of 3 first-line management options (observation, active treatment, or end-of-life care). Inputs were derived from UK health technology assessments and targeted literature reviews, or based on authors' clinical experience where data were unavailable. Active treatment, complication, and end-of-life care costs were included. RESULTS: The average per-patient cost of treating myeloma (across all routes) was estimated at £146 261. The average per-patient cost associated with EP (£152 677) was the highest; differences were minimal compared with GP 2-week wait (£149 631) and consultant to consultant (£147 237). GP urgent (£140 025) and GP routine (£130 212) were associated with marginally lower costs. Complication (£42 252) and end-of-life care (£11 273) costs were numerically higher for EP than other routes (£25 021-£38 170 and £9772-£10 458, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: An economic benefit may be associated with earlier diagnosis, gained via reduced complication and end-of-life care costs. Strategies to expedite myeloma diagnosis and minimize EPs have the potential to improve patient outcomes and may result in long-term savings that could offset any upfront costs associated with their implementation.

Indirect Treatment Comparisons of Lenacapavir Plus Optimized Background Regimen Versus Other Treatments for Multidrug-Resistant Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Heavily treatment-experienced (HTE) people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PWH) may not achieve virologic suppression (VS) with combination antiretroviral therapy due to multidrug resistance (MDR), intolerance, and safety concerns. These PWH often receive highly individualized treatment regimens, but these regimens may not enable PWH to achieve VS, thereby halting disease progression. Novel medications are required for treating individuals with MDR HIV. Lenacapavir (LEN), a first-in-class HIV capsid inhibitor, is under investigation for the treatment of HTE individuals with MDR HIV in the phase 2/3 CAPELLA study. This study aimed to compare LEN plus optimized background regimen (OBR) with fostemsavir (FTR) + OBR, ibalizumab (IBA) + OBR, and OBR alone in terms of VS, CD4 cell count change from baseline, immunologic recovery, and discontinuation due to adverse events, using indirect treatment comparisons. METHODS: A systematic review identified clinical evidence on HIV-1 treatments in HTE PWH. A feasibility assessment evaluated the identified studies for indirect treatment comparison analyses based on population characteristics, interventions, comparators, and outcomes of interest. Unanchored simulated treatment comparisons of LEN + OBR versus comparators were conducted. RESULTS: LEN + OBR had 6.57 times higher odds of VS at weeks 24 to 28 than FTR + OBR (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34-32.28), 8.93 times higher odds of VS than IBA + OBR (95% CI 2.07-38.46), and 12.74 times higher odds of VS than OBR alone (95% CI 1.70-95.37). Change from baseline in CD4 cell count was similar across LEN + OBR, FTR + OBR, and IBA + OBR. CONCLUSION: LEN + OBR has statistically significantly greater odds of VS at weeks 24 to 28 than its comparators and represents a novel treatment for people with MDR HIV.

Improving the clinical accuracy and flexibility of the Alkaptonuria severity score index.

Alkaptonuria (AKU) is a rare genetic disorder where oxidised homogentisic acid accumulates in connective tissues, leading to multisystem disease. The clinical evaluation Alkaptonuria Severity Score Index (cAKUSSI) is a composite score that assesses the extent of AKU disease. However, some components assess similar disease features, are difficult to measure reliably or cannot be measured in resource-limited environments. cAKUSSI data from the 4-year SONIA 2 randomised controlled trial, which investigated nitisinone treatment in adults with AKU, were analysed (N = 125). Potentially biased or low-information cAKUSSI measurements were identified using clinical and statistical input to create a revised AKUSSI for use in AKU research (cAKUSSI 2.0). Additionally, resource-intensive measurements were removed to explore a flexible AKUSSI (flex-AKUSSI) for use in low-resource environments. Revised scores were compared to cAKUSSI in terms of correlation and how they capture disease progression and treatment response. Eight measurements were removed from the cAKUSSI to create the cAKUSSI 2.0, which performed comparably to the cAKUSSI in measuring disease extent, progression and treatment response. When removing resource-intensive measurements except for osteoarticular disease, the flex-AKUSSI was highly correlated with the cAKUSSI, indicating that they quantified disease extent similarly. However, when osteoarticular disease (measured using scans) was removed, the corresponding flex-AKUSSI underestimated disease progression and overestimated treatment response compared to the cAKUSSI. Clinicians may use the cAKUSSI 2.0 to reduce time, effort and patient burden. Clinicians in resource-limited environments may find value in computing a flex-AKUSSI score, offering potential for future global registries to expand knowledge about AKU.

Correlation between work productivity loss and EORTC QLQ-C30 and -BR23 domains from the MONALEESA-7 trial of premenopausal women with HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The phase III MONALEESA-7 trial (NCT02278120) assessed ribociclib + endocrine therapy (ET) versus ET in premenopausal women with HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer (ABC). The relationship between work productivity loss (WPL) and domains of European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life (EORTC QLQ-C30) and the breast cancer (BC)-specific module (QLQ-BR23) has not been explored in ABC. In this post hoc analysis (data cutoff, November 30, 2018), we assessed the correlation between the WPL component of the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment: General Health (WPAI:GH) questionnaire and EORTC QLQ-C30/BR23 domains. METHODS: We analyzed EORTC and WPAI:GH data from 329 patients in both treatment arms of MONALEESA-7 who were employed during the trial. Separate univariable mixed-model repeated measures (MMRM) regression models were fitted for each domain, with WPL as dependent variable and each EORTC domain score as a single fixed-effect covariate. Linear and quadratic relationships were considered based on the Akaike information criterion. Next, two separate multivariable MMRM regression models were fitted with WPL a dependent variable and all QLQ-C30/BR23 domain scores as fixed-effect covariates. The strength of correlation between WPL and EORTC domains was assessed in terms of minimally important differences for the QLQ-C30/BR23 modules. RESULTS: Our univariable analysis showed that greater WPL was statistically significantly associated with lower levels of overall quality of life (QoL) and other functional domains and with higher levels of all symptomatic domains of the QLQ-C30/BR23 modules. Our multivariable analysis determined that this correlation was primarily driven by changes in QoL; physical, role, social, and future perspective domains; and BC-specific symptomatic domains. CONCLUSION: This analysis determined the QoL domains that correlate with WPL in premenopausal patients with HR+/HER2- ABC. These results may inform prognostic tools to identify and characterize patients with greater risk for WPL and help design interventional strategies to minimize WPL.

Systematic literature review and network meta-analysis of sodium-glucose co-transporter inhibitors vs metformin as add-on to insulin in type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: To identify and synthesize phase 3 and phase 4 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of sodium-glucose co-transporter (SGLT) inhibitors and metformin as adjuncts to insulin in type 1 diabetes (T1DM) using network meta-analysis (NMA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic literature review (SLR) identified relevant RCTs of ≥12 Weeks duration. MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library and grey literature were searched through October 2018. NMAs indirectly compared SGLT inhibitors and metformin for change from baseline in HbA1c, weight, total daily insulin dose and systolic blood pressure at Week 24 to 26 and Week 52. Safety outcomes were also explored. RESULTS: Nine trials (N = 6780) were included in the SLR. NMAs indicated that all therapies performed better than placebo for the efficacy outcomes at both time points. Compared with metformin at Week 24 to 26, the SGLT inhibitors dapagliflozin (5 mg), sotagliflozin (200 mg) and empagliflozin (10 mg) had larger reductions in HbA1c (mean difference [MD] = -0.24, 95% credible interval [CrI], -0.41 to -0.07, MD = -0.23, 95% CrI, -0.39 to -0.08 and MD = -0.35, 95% CrI, -0.51 to -0.19, respectively) and in weight, which were sustained in sensitivity analyses. There were few differences observed in the results of safety outcomes, such as risk of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), which should be interpreted cautiously because of wide CrIs. CONCLUSIONS: Adjunctive use of SGLT inhibitors in T1DM can improve glycaemic control compared with metformin while enabling weight loss, with consistent efficacy across the class. However, these results are based on indirect evidence so confirmation in a head-to-head study would be valuable.

Antiviral activity of bone morphogenetic proteins and activins.

Understanding the control of viral infections is of broad importance. Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection causes decreased expression of the iron hormone hepcidin, which is regulated by hepatic bone morphogenetic protein (BMP)/SMAD signalling. We found that HCV infection and the BMP/SMAD pathway are mutually antagonistic. HCV blunted induction of hepcidin expression by BMP6, probably via tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-mediated downregulation of the BMP co-receptor haemojuvelin. In HCV-infected patients, disruption of the BMP6/hepcidin axis and genetic variation associated with the BMP/SMAD pathway predicted the outcome of infection, suggesting that BMP/SMAD activity influences antiviral immunity. Correspondingly, BMP6 regulated a gene repertoire reminiscent of type I interferon (IFN) signalling, including upregulating interferon regulatory factors (IRFs) and downregulating an inhibitor of IFN signalling, USP18. Moreover, in BMP-stimulated cells, SMAD1 occupied loci across the genome, similar to those bound by IRF1 in IFN-stimulated cells. Functionally, BMP6 enhanced the transcriptional and antiviral response to IFN, but BMP6 and related activin proteins also potently blocked HCV replication independently of IFN. Furthermore, BMP6 and activin A suppressed growth of HBV in cell culture, and activin A inhibited Zika virus replication alone and in combination with IFN. The data establish an unappreciated important role for BMPs and activins in cellular antiviral immunity, which acts independently of, and modulates, IFN.

Hepcidin deficiency and iron deficiency do not alter tuberculosis susceptibility in a murine M.tb infection model.

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by the macrophage-tropic pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) is a highly prevalent infectious disease. Since an immune correlate of protection or effective vaccine have yet to be found, continued research into host-pathogen interactions is important. Previous literature reports links between host iron status and disease outcome for many infections, including TB. For some extracellular bacteria, the iron regulatory hormone hepcidin is essential for protection against infection. Here, we investigated hepcidin (encoded by Hamp1) in the context of murine M.tb infection. Female C57BL/6 mice were infected with M.tb Erdman via aerosol. Hepatic expression of iron-responsive genes was measured by qRT-PCR and bacterial burden determined in organ homogenates. We found that hepatic Hamp1 mRNA levels decreased post-infection, and correlated with a marker of BMP/SMAD signalling pathways. Next, we tested the effect of Hamp1 deletion, and low iron diets, on M.tb infection. Hamp1 knockout mice did not have a significantly altered M.tb mycobacterial load in either the lungs or spleen. Up to 10 weeks of dietary iron restriction did not robustly affect disease outcome despite causing iron deficiency anaemia. Taken together, our data indicate that unlike with many other infections, hepcidin is decreased following M.tb infection, and show that hepcidin ablation does not influence M.tb growth in vivo. Furthermore, because even severe iron deficiency did not affect M.tb mycobacterial load, we suggest that the mechanisms M.tb uses to scavenge iron from the host must be extremely efficient, and may therefore represent potential targets for drugs and vaccines.

Recommendations for the Improved Effectiveness and Reporting of Telemedicine Programs in Developing Countries: Results of a Systematic Literature Review.

BACKGROUND: A lack of decisive evidence on the impact of telemedicine on financial and clinical outcomes has not prohibited significant investment in developing countries. Understanding characteristics that facilitate effective telemedicine programs is required to allow telemedicine to be used to its full potential. This systematic review aimed to identify organizational, technological, and financial features of successful telemedicine programs providing direct clinical care in developing countries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Databases were searched, and the results were reviewed systematically according to predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria. Information on location(s), measure of success, and organizational, technological, and financial characteristics were extracted. This review was impeded by inadequate program reporting, and so a concise checklist was developed to aid improved reporting, enabling future reviews to identify key characteristics of effective programs. RESULTS: This systematic review identified 46 articles reporting 36 programs that fulfilled the inclusion/exclusion criteria. Programs were distributed globally, including regional, national, and international programs. Technological modalities included synchronous technology, real-time teleconsultations, and asynchronous technology. Program integration with existing systems and twinning of international institutions were identified as factors enabling program success. Other factors included simple and easy-to-use technology, ability to reduce the burden on healthcare professionals, and technology able to maintain functionality in challenging environmental circumstances. Reports describing effectiveness and costs were limited. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review identified key factors associated with telemedicine program success. However, inconsistencies in reporting represent an obstacle to establishment of successful programs in developing countries by limiting the application of previous experiences. Adhering to the guidelines suggested here may allow more quantitative assessments of effectiveness and impact for future programs.

Expression of the iron hormone hepcidin distinguishes different types of anemia in African children.

Childhood anemia is a major global health problem resulting from multiple causes. Iron supplementation addresses iron deficiency anemia but is undesirable for other types of anemia and may exacerbate infections. The peptide hormone hepcidin governs iron absorption; hepcidin transcription is mediated by iron, inflammation, and erythropoietic signals. However, the behavior of hepcidin in populations where anemia is prevalent is not well established. We show that hepcidin measurements in 1313 African children from The Gambia and Tanzania (samples taken in 2001 and 2008, respectively) could be used to identify iron deficiency anemia. A retrospective secondary analysis of published data from 25 Gambian children with either postmalarial or nonmalarial anemia demonstrated that hepcidin measurements identified individuals who incorporated >20% oral iron into their erythrocytes. Modeling showed that this sensitivity of hepcidin expression at the population level could potentially enable simple groupings of individuals with anemia into iron-responsive and non-iron-responsive subtypes and hence could guide iron supplementation for those who would most benefit.

Hepcidin regulation by innate immune and infectious stimuli.

Hepcidin controls the levels and distribution of iron, an element whose availability can influence the outcome of infections. We investigated hepcidin regulation by infection-associated cytokines, pathogen-derived molecules, and whole pathogens in vitro and in vivo. We found that IL-22, an effector cytokine implicated in responses to extracellular infections, caused IL-6-independent hepcidin up-regulation in human hepatoma cells, suggesting it might represent an additional inflammatory hepcidin agonist. Like IL-6, IL-22 caused phosphorylation of STAT3 and synergized with BMP6 potentiating hepcidin induction. In human leukocytes, IL-6 caused potent, transient hepcidin up-regulation that was augmented by TGF-ß1. Pathogen-derived TLR agonists also stimulated hepcidin, most notably the TLR5 agonist flagellin in an IL-6-dependent manner. In contrast, leukocyte hepcidin induction by heat-killed Candida albicans hyphae was IL-6-independent, but partially TGF-ß-dependent. In a murine acute systemic candidiasis model, C albicans strongly stimulated hepcidin, accompanied by a major reduction in transferrin saturation. Similarly, hepcidin was up-regulated with concomitant lowering of serum iron during acute murine Influenza A/PR/8/34 virus (H1N1) infection. This intracellular pathogen also stimulated hepcidin expression in leukocytes and hepatoma cells. Together, these results indicate that hepcidin induction represents a component of the innate immune response to acute infection, with the potential to affect disease pathogenesis.